Senior Manager, Business Assessment - Vaccines

ROLE SUMMARY Business Assessment (BA) is an exciting, highly collaborative, and dynamic team of professionals responsible for generating the investment cases for all pipeline and business development decisions. BA's assessments are independent by design: our credibility rests on applying the same rigor whether the analysis supports or challenges the case for investment. BA sits within Pfizer’s Global Commercial Analytics (GCA) organization under the Chief Marketing Office — a center of analytical excellence that unifies revenue forecasting across BD, in-line, and pipeline assets and elevates BA's strategic contribution across the full asset lifecycle. Our BA team is valued for proactive thought leadership, epi-forecasting expertise, innovative analytical capabilities, and ability to communicate complex and dynamic information in clear, concise, and creative ways. The BA Senior Manager owns discrete commercial assessments and forecasts end to end — building the model, framing the assumptions, and defending both — to inform investment decisions, partnering with colleagues across Research & Development, Global Commercial Strategy, the US/ICO, and Business Development (BD) to objectively evaluate internal pipeline and external opportunities against strategy and investment criteria. The Senior Manager works with a high degree of independence and is expected to be hands-on in the underlying models rather than directing others' analysis, ensuring thorough and consistent information to inform critical internal investment decisions and structure appropriate external deal terms. The Senior Manager will also provide strategic input into trade-off decisions that may be required between investment options, ensure consistency in assessment and forecasting approaches across external or internal investment options, and present analysis and recommendations directly to executive governance bodies. The role is anchored in vaccines, where forecasting carries its own mechanics — recommendation-driven uptake, public and private market channels, cohort-based populations, seasonality, and tender dynamics. Beyond vaccines, the Senior Manager will also cover disease area opportunities across multiple therapeutic areas (oncology, internal medicine, inflammation and immunology), emerging technology platforms, and novel modalities — breadth of portfolio exposure that few commercial roles offer. ROLE RESPONSIBILITIES Build and own assessments of pipeline and BD opportunities — including epidemiology-based patient flow, treatment exposure, uptake and diffusion curves, gross-to-net price build, and risk-adjusted NPV — collaborating closely with cross-functional partners to ensure the analysis is rigorous, transparent, and based on common and well-supported modeling techniques and assumptions Take and defend an independent position — including recommending against an opportunity when the analysis does not support it, and doing so on incomplete information when the decision timeline requires it. This independence is the core of BA's value to Pfizer. Gather input from key internal expert stakeholders on the potential clinical development plan or clinical profile and commercial evaluation (e.g., Global Commercial Strategy – both early and global commercial, Integrated Insights & Strategy, Medical Affairs, Global Access Strategy & Pricing, Global Marketing/Regional leaders in the US and International Commercial Organization, Research and Development, Finance) Serve as commercial lead or co-lead of BD commercial subteams — owning the integrated workplan, framing the commercial narrative and 'what-must-be-true,' driving cross-functional alignment, and delivering decision-ready recommendations that inform deal structure and terms Integrate in-line and BD/pipeline forecasts - connect BD/pipeline assessments to in-line assumptions, cannibalization logic, and Long-Range Forecast (LRF) revenue projections AI-enabled assessment - use AI tooling as a standard part of the workflow: evidence and literature synthesis, competitive landscaping, model QC and error-checking, code-assisted analysis, and drafting of executive materials. Cycle-time gains are expected without any loss of rigor, and every assumption must remain traceable to its source. Scope and commission qualitative and quantitative primary market research with physicians, key opinion leaders, and patients, managing consulting and vendor resources while abiding by rigorous internal customer engagement protocols Develop analytically supported recommendations to facilitate investment trade off decisions across therapeutic area opportunities, as well as BD opportunities compared with internal pipeline investment Determine the appropriate level of rigor and external insights/research required, depending on the timeline and decision to be made Work flexibly and comfortably on multiple therapeutic areas in a matrixed team, as needed Support additional category and Pfizer portfolio-level projects (e.g., category strategy, knowledge management, best practice synchronization, professional development) or enterprise level initiatives and evaluations using internal forecasts, analyst reports, and other secondary data Basic Qualifications 6+ years (Bachelor’s degree) or 5+ years (Master’s degree) of relevant experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, life sciences consulting, or a comparable analytical function Advanced Excel proficiency — demonstrated ability to build, audit, and document multi-tab forecast and valuation models — plus strong PowerPoint skills for executive-level materials Demonstrated hands-on experience building or owning quantitative commercial forecast and valuation models, including patient-flow/epidemiology-based demand builds, uptake curves, gross-to-net pricing, probability-of-success risk adjustment, and NPV or rNPV valuation Experience using epidemiology literature, analyst reports, secondary/claims data, primary research, and pricing and market access inputs as the basis for a quantitative forecast Experience presenting analysis and recommendations directly to senior executive audiences, including engaging commercial and research leaders at the appropriate points in the assessment process Preferred Qualifications Prior experience in biopharma forecasting, life sciences consulting, financial services or other analytical professions MBA or life sciences advanced degree Experience in business development process, specifically in opportunity identification, commercial assessment, and deal structure Vaccines forecasting experience, including recommendation-driven uptake (e.g., ACIP or equivalent), public versus private channel dynamics, publicly funded programs such as VFC, cohort-based epidemiology, seasonality, and tender or multilateral markets Demonstrated use of AI/LLM tooling within an analytical workflow — evidence synthesis, model QC, code-assisted analysis — with assumptions kept traceable and auditable A track record of delivering an unfavorable or contrarian assessment that held up under senior scrutiny Proficiency in Python, R, or SQL for data handling, automation, and scenario analysis Experience influencing without direct authority in a matrixed organization, and supporting or leading cross-functional teams under compressed timelines with incomplete information Working knowledge of healthcare and pharmaceutical industry trends, competitor strategies, dynamics in the US and other major global markets, and the drug development process undefined Candidate demonstrates a breadth of diverse le